pga projections

resolve pga

forward-only tournament projections from the v4 GBM model — per-round strokes-gained, MC finishing distribution, course-fit rank. this week's field and the rest of the slate below.

the ways in

how the model has held up, across the site

85%of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus

RPS 0.171World Cup ranked-probability scoretighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)

54%hit rate on 165 NBA playoff callsbeat the closing market

These are the model's results wherever it has been scored so far. Per sport numbers replace them as each sport builds up a record.

what has changed

release notes

2026-06-27

release notes

v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.

2026-06-27

methodology writeups

14+ custom PGA metrics layered on top of strokes-gained, joined with weather and pin difficulty at the round level. Each one was face-validity tested before it shipped — if a "clutch putter" metric ranked someone nobody would call clutch, it got cut.

soon

model retrospectives

what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.