pga projections
resolve pga — 3m open
forward-only tournament projections from the v4 GBM model — per-round strokes-gained, MC finishing distribution, course-fit rank. this week's field and the rest of the slate below.
this week · projected favorites
top 10 favorites
win / top-5 / top-10 / top-20 / make-cut probabilities from the v4 GBM model.
| player | win % | top 5 % | top 10 % | top 20 % | cut % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| loading favorites… | |||||
release notes
2026-06-27
release notes
v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.
2026-06-27
methodology writeups
14+ custom PGA metrics layered on top of strokes-gained, joined with weather and pin difficulty at the round level. Each one was face-validity tested before it shipped — if a "clutch putter" metric ranked someone nobody would call clutch, it got cut.
soon
model retrospectives
what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.
how the projections have held up
85%
of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly
RPS 0.171
World Cup ranked-probability score
54%
hit rate on 165 NBA playoff calls